Will the Indian government send Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh?
The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been sentenced to death for crimes against humanity. She is currently in India. Following the verdict, Bangladesh has called on India to extradite her. But will India extradite her? Seema Akhtar, 24, was practising soccer when a friend suddenly stopped her and broke the news. She said that Bangladesh’s fugitive former prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, had been sentenced to death. The verdict seemed like a moment of justice to the Dhaka University student. Sheikh Hasina’s security forces cracked down on protesters last year. Several of Seema Akhtar’s friends were also killed during the crackdown. Sheikh Hasina eventually resigned and fled Bangladesh. The 78-year-old leader is on trial at the International Crimes Tribunal in Dhaka on charges of crimes against humanity.
After months of trial, the court sentenced her to death. She was convicted of ordering deadly crackdowns on protests last year. “Fascist Hasina thought she could never be defeated. She could stay in power forever,” Seema Akhtar said from Dhaka. His death sentence is a step towards justice for our martyrs. Seema believes that just announcing the sentence is not enough. “We want to see him hanged in Dhaka itself,” she says. But the task is not that easy. Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka in August 2024. She is currently in an asylum in India. Despite repeated requests from Bangladesh to the Indian government to return Sheikh Hasina, she has not been returned. The issue has been a source of tension between the two neighbouring countries for 15 months.
Now, with Hasina being convicted of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death, this tension is expected to reach new heights. Although India is keen to build cooperative relations with the post-Hasina Bangladesh government, some geopolitical analysts say they cannot imagine a scenario in which New Delhi would send the former prime minister back to Bangladesh to face the death penalty. Former Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka Pinak Ranjan Chakraborty asked, “How can New Delhi push her to death?”
'A very unfriendly move'
Hasina is Bangladesh's longest-serving prime minister. She is the eldest daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led the country's liberation war against Pakistan in 1971. Sheikh Hasina became the first prime minister in 1996. She was out of power for several years after losing the 2001 election. She returned to power in 2009, winning the election. Sheikh Hasina then ruled for 15 years. The elections she won were often boycotted by the opposition or not allowed to contest. During this time, thousands of people were forcibly disappeared. Many were extrajudicially killed.
Torture was common, and many political opponents were imprisoned without trial. Hasina's government sought to legitimise her rule by highlighting its economic successes. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once called Bangladesh's economy a "bottomless basket." In recent years, Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) has grown rapidly and surpassed India's in per capita income. Students began protests in July 2024, demanding reforms to the quota provision for children and grandchildren of freedom fighters in government jobs. After a brutal crackdown by security forces on the protesters, the protests turned into demands for Hasina's resignation. Protests then spread across the country. Protesters clashed with police in Dhaka. India's long-standing alliance with Sheikh Hasina. She fled to New Delhi on August 5, 2024.
Nobel Peace Prize winner Professor Muhammad Yunus then took charge as the head of the interim government. Muhammad Yunus' government then developed close ties with Pakistan amid tensions with India. Tensions with India over various issues, including the return of Sheikh Hasina, emerged. Last Tuesday, the Foreign Ministry in Dhaka further strengthened its voice against New Delhi. The ministry mentioned an extradition treaty with India. It said that it was an "essential responsibility" for New Delhi to return Hasina to Bangladesh as per the extradition treaty.
They also said that if India continues to grant Hasina asylum, it would be a "highly unfriendly step and a disgrace to justice". However, Indian political analysts told Al Jazeera that there is an exception in the extradition treaty. This exception can be used in the case of "political figures". "India sees this incident (Hasina's case) as political revenge by the ruling political forces in Bangladesh," said Sanjay Bhardwaj, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. Bhardwaj also told Al Jazeera that New Delhi believes that "anti-India forces" are currently in power in Bangladesh. Yunus is a frequent critic of India. Leaders and participants of the protest movement that forced Hasina to resign also often blame New Delhi for supporting the former prime minister. Bharadwaj believes that, taking these aspects into account, handing over Hasina would mean legitimising 'anti-India forces'.
India's equation needs to change
India's Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement after the verdict against Hasina. It said that India is aware of Hasina's verdict and will continue to engage constructively with all stakeholders. India also said that it is committed to ensuring the best interests of the people of Bangladesh, especially in the areas of peace, democracy, inclusiveness and stability. However, relations between New Delhi and Dhaka are currently cold. The prosperous economic, security and political relations that developed during Hasina's rule have now degenerated into a relationship of distrust. Former Indian High Commissioner Pinak Ranjan Chakraborty said that he does not think that this situation will change soon. Pinak Chakraborty told Al Jazeera, "Under this government (Bangladesh), the bilateral relations will remain strained. Because they will keep saying, India is not giving Hasina back to us."
Pinak Chakraborty believes that a new beginning can be made with the elections to be held in Bangladesh in February next year. Although Hasina's Awami League is not being given a chance to participate in the elections. The main opposition party, BNP and other major political forces are critical of India. Still, it will be a relief for India to work with the elected administration. Professor Sriradha Dutta, a South Asia expert at Jindal Global University in India, said that India is in a dilemma over Hasina. But they cannot ignore the anger of the people in Bangladesh against her. Sriradha added that New Delhi will naturally want the Awami League to return to power in the future in some way or the other. She (Hasina) has always been the best choice for India. But the reality is that India has to accept that it is unlikely that Hasina will ever be given a chance in Bangladesh again.
Instead, India should build relations with other political forces in Dhaka. Sriradha Dutta said that our bilateral relations are currently in a very delicate state. But we must move on from this specific agenda (Hasina's extradition). Sriradha Dutta believes, ‘Even if India and Bangladesh are no longer friends, they still need to maintain etiquette towards each other.’ Bangladesh and India have close cultural ties. The two countries share a 4,000-kilometre border. India is Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner after China. In fact, despite the tensions, trade between India and Bangladesh has increased in recent months. India has long said that its relationship is with Bangladesh. Not with any specific party or leader. Yet India’s closest relationship was with the Awami League. India supported Bangladesh in the 1971 war of liberation. Hasina’s personal relationship with India is also old. Her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his family members were killed in a military coup in 1975. At that time, Hasina and her younger sister Rehana survived because they were in Germany. The then Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi sheltered them. Hasina lived in several houses in New Delhi with her husband M. A. Wazed, their children and Rehana, and also worked part-time in the Bengali department of All India Radio. After six years in exile, Hasina returned to Bangladesh to lead her father's party. She was elected Prime Minister for the first time in 1996. Her second and longest term in office began in 2009. Sheikh Hasina's rule saw relations with India flourish.
Although she faced criticism for this at home, particularly for signing deals with Indian companies that were considered "unfair". When Hasina needed to flee after being ousted, there was little doubt as to where she could seek refuge. She was received warmly by India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval upon her arrival in New Delhi. Former Indian High Commissioner Pinak Chakraborty said, "This time we did not invite Hasina. A senior official greeted her normally. Because she was the Prime Minister at the time. India allowed him to stay. Because what other option was there? Pinack added, “Can she (Hasina) return to Bangladesh, especially now that she has been sentenced to death?
She was friendly to India, and India needs to take a moral stand on this.” Hasina’s presence in India will 'remain a thorn in the bilateral relationship,” said Michael Kugelman, a Washington, D.C.-based South Asia analyst. But it has enabled India to keep its promise to be loyal to its allies. However, Kugelman believes that such a move could also bring long-term political benefits to New Delhi. According to Kugelman, Hasina’s political influence and the future of her party, the Awami League, cannot be completely ignored. Hasina is leading an old family-centred party. In South Asian political history, such parties have temporarily fallen on hard times, but they have not completely disappeared.
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