Zelensky under tension
US President Donald Trump gave Ukraine until Thursday to agree to a 28-point peace deal to end the war. But under pressure from Kiev's European allies, Trump backed down. In the meantime, the Europeans have made a counter-peace proposal. Intensive diplomatic negotiations are underway between all parties involved. But no matter how much bargaining, the agreement that is reached at the end of the day will not be in Ukraine's favour. And if Kiev does not agree to this 'bad deal', it will have to continue the war.
But how long Ukraine will be able to stop the advance of Russian troops without the help of its main sponsor, the United States, is a matter of considerable concern. Trump's special envoy for negotiations, Steve Witkoff, will soon visit Moscow again. He is scheduled to meet with Putin and other top Russian officials during the trip. One of Witkoff's main objectives this time is probably to convince Russia to make concessions on the issue of Ukrainian land concessions. In particular, Moscow has to agree to give up its claim to Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
Whether Russia will agree to give up this or not will be clear in a few days. Russia launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022. But the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine has been in conflict with government troops since 2014. Russia is supporting the rebels. Donbas consists of two administrative regions - Luhansk and Donetsk. Almost all of Luhansk is under the control of Russian troops. Most of Donetsk is also under the control of Russian troops. One of Russia's main demands for a peace agreement is that the entire Donbas should be handed over to Russia.
In exchange, Russia will leave the occupied territory in other regions of Ukraine. At this stage of the war, Ukraine is not in a situation to be optimistic. Currently, Ukraine is plagued by various problems in terms of administration as well as on the battlefield. Corruption investigators searched the home of Ukraine's chief of staff and chief negotiator, Andriy Yermak, on Friday, a major blow to the Zelensky administration, which is under pressure to end the war in line with a US peace proposal.
”Zelensky has little room for negotiation now. On the other hand, efforts to end the war have advanced significantly since Trump took office in January. It can be said that a deal is almost imminent.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine's major battlefield problems include a shortage of troops. In addition, there is uncertainty about how much funding Kiev will receive from its European allies next year. In addition to these crises, Ukraine is currently in three separate hostile situations on the battlefield. Russian troops are advancing rapidly in the Zaporizhzhia region. Although slowly, Russian troops are also continuing to move in the Pokrovsk and Donetsk regions. Russian troops are also in a strong position in the Kupyansk region in the north. Ukraine, which is short of manpower, does not have the ability to stop the advance of Russian troops in so many regions at once.
In this delicate situation, the areas of Donetsk that are still under Ukrainian control may also fall under Russian control this winter. Not only that, but Russian troops have moved very close to Kramatorsk, an important military centre in Ukraine. They are now regularly attacking them with short-range drones. In this situation, there is no possibility that Ukrainian troops will easily take control of the lost territory; rather, the main desire of Kiev and its European allies now is for Russia to become unstable due to internal conflicts. Another secret hope of Kiev and its allies is that the Russian economy, which has been built around the loss of as many Russian soldiers as possible and the collapse of the war, is likely to be quite weak.
It is almost impossible to predict how much a closed society like Russia will collapse under these pressures. In 2023, the Russian mercenary private military force 'Wagner' mutinied. The soldiers of the force mutinied on the battlefield and started their journey towards Moscow. The mutiny was over within 72 hours. The head of the force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was killed in a plane crash.
Therefore, in the current situation, it can be said that Zelensky does not have much room for bargaining now. On the other hand, the initiative to end the war has gone a long way since Trump came to power last January. It can be said that an agreement is almost imminent. Zelensky now has no choice but to accept Trump's offer and make a deal or continue the war at great risk. On the other hand, Trump may give Ukraine another deadline to accept the peace proposal after Witkoff's upcoming talks with Russian officials in Moscow.
Source: Prothom Alo
#WorldNews #InstantNews #RussiaWarNews
Comments
Post a Comment